* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 60 65 69 71 72 71 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 52 60 65 69 71 72 71 SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 5 6 4 2 2 4 10 6 13 12 12 SHEAR DIR 12 7 354 42 80 45 149 285 157 210 203 272 230 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 135 137 137 138 138 138 139 142 146 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 57 57 56 57 57 62 63 56 57 52 53 51 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 850 MB VORT 49 43 34 31 31 47 64 74 92 75 56 46 51 LAND (KM) 1854 1839 1832 1796 1723 1601 1503 1425 1394 1418 1486 1412 1293 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.9 18.3 19.5 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.8 36.9 38.0 39.0 41.0 43.0 44.8 46.2 47.7 49.4 51.4 53.6 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 15 18 24 32 26 32 40 45 46 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 523 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 99 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 26. 34. 40. 45. 47. 48. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 27. 35. 40. 44. 46. 47. 46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.94 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.76 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.80 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.42 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 4.86 Prob of RI= 32.0% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)