* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * ONE 08/05/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 34 35 37 38 40 39 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 32 34 35 37 38 40 39 37 SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 19 22 22 25 19 17 20 20 23 23 N/A SHEAR DIR 279 276 279 277 267 284 293 284 251 244 237 246 9999 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 125 127 128 128 130 131 132 135 137 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 N/A 500-300 MB RH 44 47 47 44 41 43 40 35 26 25 26 29 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 0 0 0 0 -7 0 0 8 -6 -3 4 N/A 850 MB VORT 51 60 56 50 53 58 39 28 18 9 -8 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 1163 1054 948 832 721 561 424 437 569 718 771 886 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.9 146.1 147.2 148.5 149.7 152.0 154.6 157.0 159.5 161.6 163.4 165.6 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 700 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 14. 12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) ONE 8/05/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 26.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 2.54 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)