* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 54 54 54 52 51 51 50 45 41 35 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 54 54 54 52 51 51 50 45 41 35 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 17 15 9 14 20 11 17 21 30 35 36 SHEAR DIR 231 233 235 248 267 275 289 287 280 257 251 255 261 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.2 24.0 23.2 20.9 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 133 132 126 119 116 112 103 98 87 82 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 -55.7 -55.5 -55.3 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 8 7 7 5 3 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 34 33 31 28 28 37 45 45 43 42 45 46 52 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 3 1 6 0 3 2 11 7 17 0 18 850 MB VORT 22 33 26 -3 -25 -59 -66 -39 -14 -3 -8 29 36 LAND (KM) 1344 1350 1360 1361 1363 1291 1194 1046 917 833 852 1032 1313 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.7 32.9 33.2 33.4 34.4 35.9 37.3 38.7 40.3 42.1 43.9 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 59.4 58.6 57.7 57.2 56.6 55.6 54.1 52.3 50.3 47.7 44.5 40.5 35.9 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 12 12 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 521 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -10. -14. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 79.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.06 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.41 Scaled RI index= 3.04 Prob of RI= 3.5% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)