* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 46 53 57 60 63 66 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 46 53 57 60 63 66 64 SHEAR (KTS) 2 6 5 4 4 3 8 1 15 8 14 6 18 SHEAR DIR 345 359 8 12 303 360 260 230 228 239 277 239 264 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 131 131 132 133 134 135 137 141 145 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 500-300 MB RH 53 56 57 59 58 56 53 52 52 49 54 56 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 2 1 3 0 850 MB VORT 31 24 20 24 27 38 54 73 74 53 25 21 25 LAND (KM) 1948 1953 1890 1816 1748 1640 1556 1516 1528 1534 1465 1372 1218 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 35.6 36.6 37.6 38.7 39.8 42.0 44.0 45.9 47.7 49.5 51.2 52.9 54.7 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 13 19 25 28 28 30 40 40 38 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 602 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 102 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 29. 33. 37. 40. 42. 41. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 28. 32. 35. 38. 41. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 27.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 105.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.25 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 4.28 Prob of RI= 15.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)