* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * BOB 08/05/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 90 80 70 52 41 34 27 23 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 100 90 80 70 52 41 34 27 23 19 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 25 30 31 30 32 33 32 32 41 39 39 33 34 SHEAR DIR 263 266 274 276 276 281 272 261 254 252 255 258 255 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 125 125 126 129 132 136 137 136 136 135 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 500-300 MB RH 37 33 30 28 31 27 25 23 25 31 32 37 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -1 4 6 -13 2 -5 0 12 1 0 10 5 850 MB VORT 52 47 39 48 69 72 65 36 30 28 4 -13 -42 LAND (KM) 710 621 533 442 354 201 80 184 245 220 267 377 505 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 148.6 149.5 150.3 151.2 152.1 153.9 155.8 157.6 159.4 160.8 162.1 163.4 164.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 660 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. -39. -41. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR -5. -12. -18. -23. -33. -37. -39. -43. -46. -50. -51. -53. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -14. -23. -34. -53. -65. -74. -81. -87. -93. -97. -99. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -15. -25. -35. -53. -64. -71. -78. -81. -86. -91. -97. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) BOB 8/05/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 29.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 25.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 19.3 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.11 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 4.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.01 Prob of RI= 2.3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)