* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 46 45 44 44 43 44 44 41 37 32 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 46 45 44 44 43 44 44 41 37 32 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 16 13 11 17 16 17 22 30 32 39 34 SHEAR DIR 230 227 244 267 260 266 290 273 252 242 248 259 262 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.6 23.5 21.8 19.5 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 134 132 129 122 118 114 107 100 91 83 78 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -55.3 -55.3 -55.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 3 2 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 32 30 27 27 33 39 47 47 46 41 47 49 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 3 2 3 0 0 8 8 6 17 25 2 3 850 MB VORT 29 20 -5 -22 -22 -57 -45 -20 -2 0 -4 -3 53 LAND (KM) 1367 1369 1373 1351 1329 1222 1131 961 848 840 948 1230 1527 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.7 32.9 33.4 33.8 35.1 36.5 38.1 39.7 41.4 43.2 45.5 48.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 58.0 57.4 57.0 56.5 55.5 54.2 51.8 48.9 45.6 42.1 37.0 30.8 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 11 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 80/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 565 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 21. 23. 22. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -13. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 27.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 83.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.52 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 2.78 Prob of RI= 3.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)