* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/05/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 41 46 49 53 56 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 41 46 49 53 56 56 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 6 13 17 12 16 6 8 9 8 12 12 SHEAR DIR 324 318 294 283 295 287 301 254 275 224 274 252 278 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 126 126 128 129 134 139 145 148 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 11 11 500-300 MB RH 47 49 53 53 52 47 38 33 31 29 29 27 27 MO FLX (M/S/D) -4 -4 -2 -1 3 3 -5 2 3 4 0 -3 -6 850 MB VORT 24 19 20 20 16 33 64 80 48 26 -4 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2035 1981 1934 1893 1857 1774 1707 1675 1592 1461 1146 951 829 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.1 18.0 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.8 21.9 22.6 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.7 37.8 38.8 39.8 40.7 43.1 46.0 48.0 49.6 52.0 55.4 57.8 59.5 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 7 8 11 16 16 25 34 35 42 42 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 648 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 54 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 16. 21. 24. 28. 31. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/05/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.81 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.08 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 3.74 Prob of RI= 8.6% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)