* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 39 37 36 35 34 34 35 34 32 27 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 39 37 36 35 34 34 35 34 32 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 18 17 16 18 21 15 28 35 45 44 35 32 SHEAR DIR 226 242 261 260 266 272 269 257 249 250 244 250 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.7 24.6 22.9 20.5 18.9 17.4 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 128 125 118 116 107 96 86 81 78 75 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 -54.9 -54.3 -53.5 -54.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 6 3 2 1 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 29 27 29 33 38 44 44 44 42 44 50 54 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 2 6 2 0 10 4 10 21 33 56 18 14 850 MB VORT 18 -7 -21 -32 -54 -52 -30 -24 -9 0 12 31 22 LAND (KM) 1400 1387 1377 1318 1249 1123 1011 819 774 934 1182 1506 1187 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.9 33.2 33.9 34.6 36.1 37.6 39.7 42.0 44.3 46.4 48.6 51.0 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 57.2 56.7 56.5 56.3 55.4 53.2 49.9 45.9 41.6 37.3 32.5 27.4 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 11 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 566 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 23. 26. 27. 26. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -9. -12. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -13. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.54 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 58.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.05 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 2.65 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)