* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/05/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 30 32 35 37 39 45 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 30 32 35 37 39 45 50 51 SHEAR (KTS) 9 11 18 21 15 20 17 18 9 11 6 18 18 SHEAR DIR 315 270 275 295 299 299 302 284 276 273 276 287 265 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 126 127 128 128 131 135 141 146 143 142 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 48 46 49 47 46 46 44 41 43 39 37 34 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 5 5 2 4 2 9 0 -4 1 -13 -4 850 MB VORT 21 22 21 16 18 35 38 30 -3 -12 -18 -16 -19 LAND (KM) 1972 1934 1905 1861 1824 1839 1868 1878 1781 1663 1578 1598 1662 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.8 20.8 22.0 23.6 25.4 27.2 29.0 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.7 40.9 42.1 43.3 44.9 46.4 47.8 49.5 51.5 53.7 55.2 56.0 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 11 16 14 16 19 21 17 20 16 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 805 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 13. 16. 21. 26. 29. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. 20. 25. 26. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/05/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 100.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.67 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 3.80 Prob of RI= 9.3% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)