* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 40 40 40 40 39 39 37 33 27 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 40 40 40 40 39 39 37 33 27 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 17 17 18 15 18 25 32 37 32 27 20 SHEAR DIR 243 261 256 264 264 274 258 249 247 243 247 238 249 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.5 23.6 22.4 20.1 18.8 17.7 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 128 124 117 114 100 94 84 81 78 77 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -54.7 -53.8 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 25 28 34 36 40 50 44 45 42 48 52 55 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 7 4 3 4 10 10 8 17 44 37 22 4 850 MB VORT 1 -13 -16 -44 -55 -33 -10 -9 -3 21 7 7 21 LAND (KM) 1431 1425 1421 1338 1256 1100 902 746 765 995 1287 1577 1218 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.7 33.0 33.9 34.8 36.8 38.6 40.6 42.8 44.7 46.4 47.9 49.4 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 56.7 56.2 55.8 55.4 54.1 52.3 49.2 45.1 40.6 35.9 31.4 27.1 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 535 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 26. 27. 25. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -16. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -12. -18. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.47 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 86.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.54 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.12 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 2.71 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)