* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/06/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 32 34 35 40 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 32 34 35 40 44 44 SHEAR (KTS) 18 19 20 18 20 25 18 23 18 20 17 17 19 SHEAR DIR 290 294 310 318 310 308 298 308 291 300 289 300 297 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.7 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 127 128 129 135 139 141 145 152 151 146 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 500-300 MB RH 42 47 49 48 44 42 44 43 48 46 42 45 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 9 0 -6 0 -4 5 0 0 6 0 -3 -2 850 MB VORT 32 24 18 20 22 12 6 -25 -17 -26 -14 -29 -57 LAND (KM) 1928 1887 1843 1818 1801 1835 1741 1619 1559 1460 1355 1396 1497 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.7 22.1 22.8 23.1 24.0 25.9 27.4 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 39.9 41.3 42.7 43.7 44.7 46.9 49.5 50.9 51.6 53.0 55.4 56.3 56.1 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 13 16 14 20 22 26 27 28 30 21 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 749 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 16. 20. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 15. 19. 19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/06/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.40 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 3.71 Prob of RI= 8.2% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)