* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 42 42 42 40 40 39 37 33 26 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 42 42 42 40 40 39 37 33 26 SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 18 20 20 16 26 30 39 38 35 28 21 SHEAR DIR 264 256 260 264 272 267 261 254 253 252 256 266 263 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.7 24.8 22.6 22.0 20.1 19.1 18.2 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 127 123 120 116 109 95 92 84 82 79 78 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -54.6 -54.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 500-300 MB RH 26 34 36 39 44 47 40 40 44 44 54 51 47 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 2 3 5 21 9 7 28 35 -9 28 13 850 MB VORT -22 -34 -51 -63 -56 -19 -18 -19 7 32 49 43 51 LAND (KM) 1392 1362 1320 1249 1182 1033 816 711 815 1071 1395 1569 1307 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.6 34.1 34.9 35.7 37.4 39.5 41.5 43.3 44.8 46.0 47.0 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 56.3 55.7 55.3 54.9 53.6 51.1 47.9 43.9 39.5 34.6 30.6 27.4 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 3 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 25. 27. 28. 26. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -20. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -7. -12. -17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. -12. -19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 26.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.40 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 81.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.50 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 59.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.09 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.05 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 2.68 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)