* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/06/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 34 37 38 39 43 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 34 37 38 39 43 46 45 SHEAR (KTS) 19 22 14 15 19 14 17 19 20 14 17 17 21 SHEAR DIR 295 314 314 302 307 309 300 297 295 286 278 251 264 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 128 128 132 137 141 145 148 151 152 149 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 500-300 MB RH 47 52 49 47 44 45 43 44 41 45 41 43 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 11 4 -10 -2 -2 1 2 4 4 4 0 -3 -3 850 MB VORT 18 19 15 18 16 21 -2 -17 -27 -21 -33 -30 -61 LAND (KM) 1865 1827 1797 1789 1791 1798 1704 1556 1435 1354 1306 1335 1413 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.7 21.8 22.7 23.4 24.1 25.0 26.3 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.4 43.6 44.7 45.7 47.7 49.8 51.5 53.0 54.2 55.3 56.0 56.5 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 16 15 15 22 23 28 30 34 35 31 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 733 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 14. 17. 17. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 13. 16. 15. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/06/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 26.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.41 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.64 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.72 Scaled RI index= 3.73 Prob of RI= 8.5% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)