* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 51 52 50 47 44 41 37 32 28 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 51 52 50 47 44 41 37 32 28 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 19 19 16 18 24 28 28 28 31 24 22 SHEAR DIR 258 260 259 271 274 261 249 254 246 262 263 279 274 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 24.1 23.1 22.0 20.5 19.3 17.9 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 123 120 118 115 104 98 92 86 82 79 77 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -55.5 -54.8 -54.6 -55.2 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 2 1 0 0 500-300 MB RH 32 37 41 45 46 38 40 37 41 40 41 46 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 4 18 9 3 14 10 7 -10 8 0 850 MB VORT -28 -48 -50 -52 -36 -17 -15 -17 9 19 38 25 39 LAND (KM) 1349 1295 1242 1183 1128 945 784 796 959 1200 1469 1443 1045 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.3 34.9 35.7 36.4 38.2 40.2 41.8 43.0 44.2 45.8 47.6 49.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.5 56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5 52.6 49.3 45.8 42.1 38.1 33.7 29.2 24.6 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 619 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 25. 26. 25. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 26.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.35 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 73.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.43 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 62.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.16 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.57 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.41 Prob of RI= 4.6% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)