* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/06/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 33 36 41 43 46 50 53 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 33 36 41 43 46 50 53 53 SHEAR (KTS) 22 17 15 16 18 11 14 16 16 13 13 17 17 SHEAR DIR 314 313 308 300 298 291 299 270 290 264 282 249 261 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 131 132 139 145 146 146 148 152 154 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 500-300 MB RH 50 47 44 47 41 42 42 44 44 47 43 42 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 -2 0 -7 -3 2 3 2 2 5 4 2 -3 850 MB VORT 7 7 14 10 13 27 9 5 -10 -10 -11 -24 -47 LAND (KM) 1828 1761 1705 1674 1651 1584 1450 1358 1270 1157 1014 999 1077 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.2 23.4 24.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.9 43.3 44.7 45.9 47.0 49.3 51.6 53.0 54.0 55.4 57.6 58.8 59.2 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 18 18 19 34 40 39 44 43 40 35 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 659 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 21. 24. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 11. 13. 16. 20. 23. 23. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/06/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 3.39 Prob of RI= 4.4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)