* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 47 46 45 44 43 42 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 47 46 45 44 43 42 42 41 39 SHEAR (KTS) 19 20 18 14 9 18 18 17 24 22 20 19 16 SHEAR DIR 246 250 263 264 267 274 251 265 249 256 263 253 253 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 24.9 23.9 23.1 21.9 21.6 20.5 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 125 122 119 116 110 102 98 91 90 86 81 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.5 -55.1 -55.4 -54.7 -55.5 -55.7 -55.4 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 500-300 MB RH 36 41 42 44 42 41 38 38 40 43 41 53 53 MO FLX (M/S/D) 7 5 6 9 10 12 0 18 14 1 -2 2 2 850 MB VORT -35 -41 -41 -25 -7 -3 -1 14 51 60 80 105 92 LAND (KM) 1358 1311 1258 1210 1168 1012 873 860 1004 1250 1550 1676 1263 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.0 34.6 35.3 36.0 37.6 39.2 40.6 41.5 42.0 42.2 43.5 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 56.4 56.0 55.3 54.5 52.6 49.9 46.5 42.8 38.8 34.6 29.8 24.6 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 704 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -21. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -10. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 26.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.38 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 75.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.44 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 62.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.17 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.18 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 2.88 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)