* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/06/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 37 40 43 49 53 54 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 37 40 43 49 53 54 SHEAR (KTS) 15 21 22 20 15 14 14 17 11 12 12 11 8 SHEAR DIR 301 313 305 306 308 281 276 287 251 274 224 222 225 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 128 131 135 141 143 145 148 152 155 155 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 500-300 MB RH 50 46 44 46 45 42 43 42 43 40 43 38 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -3 0 -11 -3 4 6 9 6 10 9 -5 -2 850 MB VORT 0 -7 -13 -4 2 -23 -23 -19 -6 1 9 -8 -24 LAND (KM) 1870 1839 1815 1784 1755 1691 1593 1474 1371 1266 1168 1137 1143 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.6 21.8 22.6 23.0 23.8 24.9 25.9 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.8 44.8 45.9 46.9 48.9 50.9 52.3 53.5 55.0 56.9 58.3 59.4 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 14 15 19 26 28 32 32 42 41 39 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 709 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 20. 24. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 23. 24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/06/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 26.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.42 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 98.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.65 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.36 Scaled RI index= 3.35 Prob of RI= 3.9% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)