* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 47 46 46 45 43 42 42 40 38 34 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 47 46 46 45 43 42 42 40 38 34 SHEAR (KTS) 21 18 13 9 16 16 25 31 32 34 35 26 20 SHEAR DIR 248 266 267 262 265 268 268 260 275 284 292 298 303 SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.8 25.2 24.0 23.8 22.3 21.1 20.2 19.9 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 121 118 117 112 103 102 93 88 85 84 84 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.5 -54.8 -55.4 -56.1 -57.8 -57.4 -58.5 -58.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 38 42 45 43 40 44 38 38 42 42 44 42 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 6 7 8 14 9 21 40 36 2 -6 -14 -13 850 MB VORT -53 -47 -34 -11 -1 4 -4 17 17 25 2 -16 -38 LAND (KM) 1326 1280 1240 1166 1078 912 833 894 1047 1268 1521 1694 1696 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 34.8 35.4 36.2 37.0 38.7 40.3 41.3 42.2 43.1 44.3 44.5 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 54.9 54.2 53.5 52.8 50.6 47.7 44.8 41.5 37.8 33.7 31.3 30.1 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 640 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -10 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. -25. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -11. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. -16. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 26.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 71.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.41 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 2.96 Prob of RI= 3.4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)