* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/07/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 36 39 42 46 50 50 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 30 32 36 39 42 46 50 50 SHEAR (KTS) 19 22 23 17 15 14 15 10 9 9 15 14 17 SHEAR DIR 316 307 314 311 300 292 267 290 220 213 212 223 227 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 129 132 137 141 142 145 148 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 500-300 MB RH 46 42 40 41 42 41 44 42 41 38 36 38 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 1 5 3 4 3 4 6 5 2 0 850 MB VORT -2 -11 -9 -4 -3 -21 -7 -21 -4 -4 -8 -20 -40 LAND (KM) 1803 1784 1771 1762 1753 1664 1594 1467 1354 1257 1212 1210 1233 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.9 21.4 22.0 22.8 23.8 25.2 26.2 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.8 44.8 45.7 46.7 47.6 49.5 50.8 52.2 53.6 55.1 56.6 57.6 58.1 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 14 18 23 27 30 33 35 42 39 37 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 763 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/07/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 3.51 Prob of RI= 5.8% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)