* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/07/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 48 47 46 45 45 45 44 42 38 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 48 47 46 45 45 45 44 42 38 SHEAR (KTS) 20 16 14 22 22 22 24 28 26 29 24 27 22 SHEAR DIR 259 259 263 264 265 253 265 255 268 277 298 315 316 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 24.7 23.7 23.7 22.7 21.4 20.6 20.3 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 118 116 114 108 101 101 95 89 86 85 84 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -56.8 -57.3 -58.2 -58.5 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 500-300 MB RH 43 47 44 39 43 43 42 39 37 38 45 42 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 11 11 11 11 13 26 17 1 -5 -10 -32 -10 850 MB VORT -49 -24 -7 -8 -2 -8 10 35 23 12 27 11 -26 LAND (KM) 1243 1202 1133 1039 950 846 827 874 964 1132 1377 1578 1728 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 35.8 36.5 37.4 38.2 39.5 40.6 41.4 42.2 43.0 43.7 44.2 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.9 54.2 53.4 52.6 51.8 49.7 47.2 45.0 42.7 39.7 36.0 33.0 30.7 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 11 CX,CY: 7/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 630 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/07/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 25.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.26 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 68.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 63.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.21 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.51 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.20 Scaled RI index= 2.84 Prob of RI= 3.3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)