* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/07/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 32 34 39 43 48 51 54 54 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 32 34 39 43 48 51 54 54 SHEAR (KTS) 21 18 14 11 13 10 14 7 12 9 12 11 11 SHEAR DIR 313 311 307 293 283 267 270 237 252 210 231 227 232 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 131 133 137 141 145 148 151 154 154 152 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 500-300 MB RH 44 42 43 43 41 45 46 45 41 42 39 38 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 0 -1 0 4 1 4 4 4 0 3 12 7 850 MB VORT -14 -11 -8 -4 -14 -23 -9 -1 3 6 -26 -28 -51 LAND (KM) 1847 1819 1797 1778 1751 1693 1577 1423 1285 1227 1260 1250 1212 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.8 26.1 27.1 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 45.1 46.0 47.1 48.1 49.7 51.2 53.0 54.8 56.1 56.8 58.1 59.8 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 16 21 23 24 27 31 40 41 37 26 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 652 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 26. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 24. 24. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/07/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 27.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.44 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 3.37 Prob of RI= 4.2% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)