* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 39 36 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 39 36 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 19 18 22 21 22 24 26 24 24 19 14 SHEAR DIR 258 252 267 267 246 269 265 276 270 286 299 312 313 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.4 24.9 24.2 24.0 22.9 22.2 21.6 21.3 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 116 115 114 110 104 103 96 93 90 89 87 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -55.1 -55.6 -55.1 -55.5 -55.9 -56.9 -56.6 -57.6 -57.6 -57.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 500-300 MB RH 46 45 40 42 47 45 45 42 50 50 50 48 58 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 10 11 16 6 17 13 12 0 1 15 5 -10 850 MB VORT -30 -8 -2 -1 6 2 7 7 2 -3 -21 -20 -26 LAND (KM) 1228 1161 1090 1027 969 891 901 997 1124 1264 1408 1577 1743 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.3 36.9 37.5 38.1 39.2 40.1 40.6 41.0 41.5 42.2 42.6 43.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 53.3 52.5 51.8 51.1 49.2 46.6 44.0 41.5 39.0 36.5 34.0 31.5 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 678 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -19. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 26. 24. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 25.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.24 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 71.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.41 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.27 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 2.51 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)