* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * NINE 08/07/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 37 39 42 47 51 54 55 57 55 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 37 39 42 47 51 54 55 57 55 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 13 16 16 10 11 9 7 10 9 9 8 SHEAR DIR 312 307 288 288 292 261 288 252 253 216 218 237 295 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 131 132 134 139 143 146 149 152 154 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 500-300 MB RH 38 36 35 38 40 41 41 42 41 40 44 39 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -4 0 2 2 4 6 5 4 3 5 8 3 850 MB VORT -15 -18 -16 -24 -30 -30 -5 2 -8 -29 -38 -63 -92 LAND (KM) 1874 1853 1832 1790 1739 1612 1462 1344 1266 1219 1229 1254 1302 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.2 21.5 22.2 23.1 23.7 24.3 25.3 26.7 27.9 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.1 47.2 48.2 49.1 50.8 52.6 54.1 55.3 56.6 57.9 59.2 60.3 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 21 21 22 26 30 34 40 39 31 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 647 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 22. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) NINE 8/07/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.68 SST (C) : Value: 27.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 95.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.63 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.12 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.17 Scaled RI index= 3.54 Prob of RI= 6.2% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)