* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 41 40 40 39 39 38 38 37 36 33 V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 41 40 40 39 39 38 38 37 36 33 SHEAR (KTS) 14 22 22 22 25 27 30 33 27 21 13 9 12 SHEAR DIR 252 257 260 255 253 267 267 265 272 296 324 320 296 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.1 24.1 23.2 22.4 21.9 21.3 21.1 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 114 112 110 104 104 98 94 91 89 88 88 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -55.0 -55.2 -54.9 -55.5 -55.3 -56.6 -56.4 -56.9 -57.2 -57.4 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 500-300 MB RH 43 40 44 47 46 44 43 46 49 45 45 50 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 12 12 13 20 27 24 21 32 13 12 -5 -6 0 850 MB VORT 3 9 8 7 6 -4 -5 -22 -35 -35 -29 -18 3 LAND (KM) 1111 1046 986 934 891 860 929 1032 1138 1236 1317 1435 1582 LAT (DEG N) 36.7 37.3 37.9 38.5 39.1 40.2 40.8 41.2 41.5 42.0 42.7 42.9 42.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 52.3 51.5 50.6 49.6 47.3 44.9 42.7 40.8 39.0 37.4 35.7 33.8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 684 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 50 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 26. 24. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -19. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.54 SST (C) : Value: 25.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.19 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 69.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.38 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.26 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.23 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 2.27 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)