* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/07/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 44 48 52 54 56 57 55 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 41 44 48 52 54 56 57 55 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 16 14 9 11 8 9 7 8 8 3 10 SHEAR DIR 314 294 293 297 288 259 259 259 201 202 210 314 38 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 132 134 137 141 145 148 152 154 148 146 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 34 36 37 40 38 37 41 40 42 39 40 37 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) -8 0 3 4 5 3 7 9 6 1 7 5 -8 850 MB VORT -30 -30 -29 -31 -31 -17 1 -4 -3 -33 -62 -90 -36 LAND (KM) 1887 1871 1820 1766 1698 1573 1444 1323 1243 1265 1372 1495 1372 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.2 25.3 26.8 28.7 30.4 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 49.9 51.3 52.9 54.6 56.3 57.5 58.4 59.1 59.8 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 21 21 22 27 30 36 38 31 13 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 748 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/07/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 27.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 97.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.54 Scaled RI index= 3.85 Prob of RI= 9.9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)