* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 43 42 41 40 40 38 35 28 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 43 42 41 40 40 38 35 28 SHEAR (KTS) 23 19 22 24 24 28 31 29 20 17 15 14 19 SHEAR DIR 261 258 245 250 257 258 270 267 294 321 327 295 326 SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.1 22.2 21.6 21.2 20.9 20.9 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 111 109 106 102 98 93 90 88 87 87 87 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -56.0 -57.4 -57.5 -58.2 -58.1 -57.0 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 500-300 MB RH 37 43 45 44 44 42 40 44 42 50 45 44 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 17 4 12 21 24 28 26 8 -5 -20 -24 -3 2 850 MB VORT -1 3 4 2 4 8 -9 -12 -29 -33 -38 -62 -104 LAND (KM) 1016 965 922 885 860 887 997 1088 1147 1224 1335 1448 1555 LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.2 38.7 39.3 39.9 40.9 41.6 42.1 42.7 43.1 43.3 43.3 43.2 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 51.0 50.1 49.1 48.0 45.5 42.8 41.0 39.7 38.4 36.8 35.3 33.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 45/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 678 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 27. 28. 28. 26. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. -24. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -10. -17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 22.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.50 SST (C) : Value: 25.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.12 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.36 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 60.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.12 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.24 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 34.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.09 Scaled RI index= 2.13 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)