* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/08/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 35 37 40 44 47 49 51 53 52 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 35 37 40 44 47 49 51 53 52 SHEAR (KTS) 20 20 17 13 12 11 13 9 9 8 7 9 16 SHEAR DIR 287 292 292 280 270 257 256 249 248 240 302 357 43 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 134 137 138 143 148 151 152 149 146 141 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 11 10 10 10 10 500-300 MB RH 36 35 35 37 36 40 37 41 40 44 41 38 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 3 4 9 7 3 8 5 4 5 6 0 -16 850 MB VORT -31 -39 -52 -38 -25 -15 -12 -20 -30 -55 -92 -104 -37 LAND (KM) 1886 1841 1799 1723 1645 1492 1391 1348 1335 1380 1461 1451 1320 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.4 24.3 25.4 26.6 28.1 29.9 31.6 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 48.0 48.9 49.8 50.6 52.4 53.9 55.1 56.3 57.4 58.8 58.7 57.5 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 21 21 24 28 31 32 28 15 12 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 741 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -39 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 17. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/08/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.65 SST (C) : Value: 27.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.50 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.66 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.70 Scaled RI index= 3.80 Prob of RI= 9.3% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)