* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/08/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 40 43 48 50 52 53 55 56 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 40 43 48 50 52 53 55 56 SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 13 15 14 13 14 9 10 11 10 15 8 SHEAR DIR 291 288 270 266 262 253 270 269 265 291 331 21 358 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 137 139 141 146 151 152 151 148 145 138 129 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 500-300 MB RH 32 34 37 34 35 42 37 42 40 46 44 45 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 4 3 3 6 6 6 2 3 8 -7 -2 850 MB VORT -39 -46 -32 -22 -29 -4 -18 -18 -45 -74 -97 -45 -18 LAND (KM) 1824 1777 1700 1625 1553 1423 1341 1305 1320 1396 1515 1368 1230 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.9 23.2 24.0 25.0 26.3 27.7 29.2 30.7 32.2 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.2 50.0 50.9 51.7 53.4 54.9 56.4 57.8 58.8 59.3 59.3 58.9 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 21 25 27 29 33 31 18 15 13 10 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 788 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 8. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/08/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.67 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.54 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 101.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.22 Scaled RI index= 3.68 Prob of RI= 7.8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)