* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 42 41 40 37 32 25 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 42 41 40 37 32 25 SHEAR (KTS) 25 24 23 25 27 20 19 11 7 11 10 11 12 SHEAR DIR 236 236 245 239 233 247 261 292 321 357 344 348 342 SST (C) 25.0 24.4 24.2 24.3 24.0 23.1 22.5 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.4 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 104 105 103 98 94 93 93 93 93 94 95 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 -56.9 -56.8 -55.9 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 500-300 MB RH 43 47 48 47 45 40 38 37 45 48 52 45 40 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 11 25 25 23 14 20 13 0 -9 -3 -3 4 850 MB VORT 5 7 5 9 24 9 -11 -21 -40 -49 -75 -107 -117 LAND (KM) 869 857 860 889 926 1040 1172 1310 1435 1533 1595 1661 1738 LAT (DEG N) 39.7 40.3 40.9 41.3 41.6 42.2 42.8 43.0 42.9 42.9 43.0 42.7 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 48.3 47.2 46.0 45.0 43.9 41.6 39.3 37.3 35.7 34.4 33.5 32.8 32.1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 50/ 19 CX,CY: 15/ 12 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 562 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -23. -24. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -13. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 24.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.01 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 60.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.31 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 57.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.06 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 1.88 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)