* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/08/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 35 40 46 48 51 54 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 35 40 46 48 51 54 58 59 SHEAR (KTS) 20 15 13 14 12 11 11 9 11 13 12 11 9 SHEAR DIR 289 288 282 285 290 278 283 289 318 351 19 54 245 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 149 151 151 152 155 155 154 151 149 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -54.9 -54.8 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 500-300 MB RH 32 33 32 33 39 42 46 41 45 40 37 41 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 1 3 2 4 0 3 0 -8 -7 -7 0 850 MB VORT -44 -35 -32 -33 -21 -27 -29 -43 -76 -109 -119 -75 -43 LAND (KM) 1703 1608 1517 1447 1381 1266 1186 1180 1210 1298 1444 1292 1216 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.6 25.5 26.5 27.6 29.0 30.9 32.4 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.0 52.0 52.9 53.7 55.5 57.2 58.4 59.5 60.4 61.4 61.1 59.8 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 29 30 32 39 40 32 18 21 14 13 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 812 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -19. -19. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 20. 23. 26. 29. 31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 18. 21. 24. 28. 29. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/08/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.49 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.66 Scaled RI index= 3.87 Prob of RI= 10.2% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)