* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * HARVEY 08/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 44 44 43 41 40 38 34 30 25 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 44 44 43 41 40 38 34 30 25 SHEAR (KTS) 24 24 28 27 21 16 7 6 5 11 5 2 11 SHEAR DIR 230 236 231 233 239 235 242 12 23 48 21 74 247 SST (C) 24.3 24.3 24.0 23.5 22.9 22.6 22.3 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 103 100 96 95 93 93 93 94 95 96 96 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.1 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 43 44 47 50 45 42 36 36 37 42 41 46 51 MO FLX (M/S/D) 8 12 17 11 8 2 -1 -1 4 -5 -2 -1 0 850 MB VORT 0 1 3 21 15 18 -1 -16 -46 -51 -60 -50 -39 LAND (KM) 859 884 926 984 1049 1199 1320 1405 1477 1551 1615 1662 1697 LAT (DEG N) 40.4 41.0 41.6 42.0 42.4 42.7 42.8 42.9 42.8 42.5 42.1 41.9 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 45.4 43.9 42.6 41.3 39.0 37.3 36.1 35.2 34.4 33.8 33.3 32.9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 538 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -25. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 28. 29. 29. 29. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) HARVEY 8/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 23.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 56.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.27 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 54.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.00 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 1.93 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)