* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 32 35 40 46 49 52 57 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 32 35 40 46 49 52 57 61 62 SHEAR (KTS) 17 12 15 14 12 14 10 7 4 0 5 1 4 SHEAR DIR 294 284 275 287 286 284 284 274 226 66 81 82 97 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 151 151 151 152 152 154 154 148 138 135 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 500-300 MB RH 33 33 32 39 42 41 45 36 36 29 39 33 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 0 2 3 2 2 0 3 0 -1 -3 -6 -3 850 MB VORT -37 -29 -26 -9 -5 -15 -17 -39 -68 -86 -46 -55 -46 LAND (KM) 1607 1507 1410 1322 1238 1066 945 904 957 1040 1069 985 1001 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.6 24.1 24.8 25.7 26.9 28.2 29.4 30.4 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.9 52.0 53.1 54.2 55.2 57.5 59.8 61.9 63.9 65.6 67.0 67.2 66.4 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 34 42 47 41 37 34 26 14 10 11 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 791 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 19 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 28. 32. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 22. 27. 31. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.47 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 3.59 Prob of RI= 6.8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)