* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 31 33 37 39 39 40 40 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 31 33 37 39 39 40 40 SHEAR (KTS) 20 17 20 21 23 24 18 15 11 8 9 7 10 SHEAR DIR 265 250 244 247 244 263 273 279 294 316 359 20 32 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 138 141 148 151 154 155 154 152 152 152 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 38 36 38 42 44 43 49 42 43 37 32 32 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 5 6 2 0 5 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 -6 -1 850 MB VORT -20 -12 -9 -4 -7 -14 -20 -43 -77 -111 -116 -91 -54 LAND (KM) 1836 1841 1841 1791 1746 1549 1386 1252 1191 1180 1210 1253 1272 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.8 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.4 28.1 28.4 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.8 46.7 47.5 48.5 49.4 51.6 53.8 56.1 58.1 59.7 60.4 60.1 59.2 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 21 21 21 28 32 38 34 19 18 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 517 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 16 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 20.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.55 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.53 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.28 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 3.58 Prob of RI= 6.7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)