* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/08/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 45 48 49 49 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 45 48 49 49 48 47 45 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 10 9 9 5 9 7 5 0 8 8 8 SHEAR DIR 314 305 297 286 267 223 274 263 300 273 28 69 74 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.0 25.2 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 151 147 140 126 118 116 117 119 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 54 54 56 57 54 57 55 53 47 47 41 46 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -5 -2 0 4 3 2 0 0 1 0 3 2 850 MB VORT 11 20 25 21 29 52 70 80 68 53 49 75 72 LAND (KM) 915 980 1010 1021 1047 1128 1204 1307 1439 1521 1633 1765 1892 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.9 16.7 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.0 17.7 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.3 113.4 114.5 115.6 117.8 120.0 122.1 124.0 125.5 126.9 128.3 129.7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 600 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 46 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 26. 25. 24. 23. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 25. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/08/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.4 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.51 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 131.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.96 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.34 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 3.74 Prob of RI= 22.7% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)