* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/09/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 39 44 45 45 45 43 43 43 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 39 44 45 45 45 43 43 43 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 10 11 8 9 8 9 1 4 11 9 13 SHEAR DIR 302 296 282 265 257 240 256 269 154 21 77 72 84 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.4 25.3 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 148 142 130 119 116 117 118 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 500-300 MB RH 53 56 56 52 55 55 48 47 39 36 31 32 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -2 0 3 5 2 2 0 0 2 1 2 1 850 MB VORT 18 24 20 29 38 59 71 70 63 66 82 97 88 LAND (KM) 951 990 997 1015 1049 1131 1235 1387 1529 1688 1863 2064 2260 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.7 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.2 114.3 115.5 116.6 118.9 121.2 123.4 125.6 127.6 129.6 131.6 133.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 600 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 24. 25. 25. 25. 23. 23. 23. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/09/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 9.8 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.48 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.95 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 77.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.3 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.33 Scaled RI index= 4.04 Prob of RI= 28.3% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.0%)