* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/09/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 51 55 58 60 63 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 51 55 58 60 63 63 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 12 12 12 7 4 2 2 4 5 10 12 SHEAR DIR 282 286 289 291 293 281 286 209 65 65 68 42 56 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 151 152 154 154 149 145 143 141 138 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 10 500-300 MB RH 31 33 37 38 39 45 41 42 36 40 38 40 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 5 5 4 1 0 3 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 850 MB VORT -33 -23 -28 -22 -25 -28 -48 -66 -86 -63 -78 -64 -81 LAND (KM) 1389 1292 1200 1108 1024 921 899 973 1082 1166 1218 1163 1073 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.6 25.7 27.0 28.2 29.2 30.0 31.0 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.2 55.3 56.5 57.7 59.9 62.0 63.7 64.7 65.0 64.6 64.6 65.0 HEAT CONTENT 38 46 48 45 38 39 33 25 18 11 12 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 723 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -18 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 33. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/09/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.48 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.11 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.24 Scaled RI index= 3.81 Prob of RI= 9.5% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)