* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/09/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 51 53 54 52 51 49 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 51 53 54 52 51 49 47 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 9 6 5 6 4 4 1 6 5 9 9 SHEAR DIR 308 305 305 274 246 286 263 274 173 25 50 35 99 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 26.3 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 148 142 129 120 118 118 119 119 123 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 500-300 MB RH 59 55 52 55 57 54 53 46 42 36 35 29 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 1 2 2 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 850 MB VORT 22 16 18 31 48 64 83 73 67 66 80 69 74 LAND (KM) 1017 1020 1039 1067 1106 1194 1305 1450 1568 1695 1845 2002 2154 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.8 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.2 115.3 116.4 117.4 119.6 121.8 123.9 125.8 127.6 129.3 131.1 132.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 590 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 53 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 23. 26. 27. 26. 24. 23. 21. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 28. 29. 27. 26. 24. 22. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/09/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.59 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.48 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 3.97 Prob of RI= 26.9% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)