* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 43 49 54 57 60 62 64 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 43 49 54 57 60 62 64 63 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 11 13 13 11 6 2 4 4 1 4 12 SHEAR DIR 265 283 281 280 275 248 275 155 158 165 330 58 66 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 151 154 154 152 148 145 143 141 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 12 13 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 500-300 MB RH 34 36 36 36 43 40 43 40 36 30 33 28 24 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 4 5 3 2 3 2 0 0 0 -3 -7 -2 850 MB VORT -16 -18 -15 -10 -4 -29 -46 -66 -86 -76 -76 -81 -93 LAND (KM) 1353 1250 1150 1068 993 918 919 965 1038 1101 1165 1206 1153 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.9 23.2 24.3 25.7 26.8 27.7 28.4 29.1 29.6 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 54.5 55.6 56.7 57.7 59.6 61.6 63.2 64.2 64.7 64.8 65.0 65.4 HEAT CONTENT 40 50 43 41 37 32 34 26 20 16 12 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 581 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 2 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.47 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 33.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.14 Scaled RI index= 3.99 Prob of RI= 11.6% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)