* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIX 08/09/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 45 53 60 62 61 58 55 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 40 45 53 60 62 61 58 55 53 52 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 5 4 2 1 2 5 1 6 6 6 2 SHEAR DIR 302 318 316 210 217 128 256 90 321 55 36 84 175 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.3 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 148 141 129 120 118 115 113 111 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 60 56 58 58 60 55 57 50 48 37 35 32 32 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 1 0 2 2 2 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 850 MB VORT 23 27 34 47 53 72 77 64 58 42 38 34 38 LAND (KM) 1086 1098 1121 1159 1205 1265 1359 1467 1567 1673 1829 1991 2163 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.3 16.9 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.4 18.7 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.5 116.5 117.5 118.4 120.4 122.3 124.1 125.9 127.7 129.7 131.8 133.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 56 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 28. 31. 33. 31. 29. 27. 25. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 35. 37. 36. 33. 30. 28. 27. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIX 8/09/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.49 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.8 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.65 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.91 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.4 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.50 Scaled RI index= 4.98 Prob of RI= 60.1% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)