* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 52 56 59 61 61 61 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 52 56 59 61 61 61 60 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 13 13 9 8 2 5 4 1 6 8 15 SHEAR DIR 278 280 278 276 272 280 357 153 156 167 67 55 82 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 151 152 154 154 152 151 146 139 137 137 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 11 12 11 500-300 MB RH 37 35 37 43 45 42 44 37 34 31 36 25 25 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 5 4 2 1 4 1 0 0 -1 -3 -10 -2 850 MB VORT -21 -17 -12 -9 -20 -47 -61 -84 -82 -80 -76 -104 -97 LAND (KM) 1304 1201 1104 1032 977 940 965 1007 1068 1107 1085 1027 1051 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.1 23.7 24.3 25.7 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.7 29.6 30.0 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.2 56.4 57.6 58.8 61.2 63.2 64.1 64.4 65.2 66.6 67.0 66.6 HEAT CONTENT 45 48 45 38 31 35 26 22 19 12 8 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 21. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 28. 32. 33. 33. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.76 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.39 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.65 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 4.57 Prob of RI= 21.2% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)