* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * SIX 08/09/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 51 58 64 65 64 61 58 56 54 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 51 58 64 65 64 61 58 56 54 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 8 7 4 5 3 6 5 6 4 9 7 SHEAR DIR 323 21 62 90 92 141 67 114 38 105 121 179 239 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.4 26.4 25.9 25.8 25.5 24.9 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 150 141 130 125 124 121 115 113 108 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 500-300 MB RH 57 60 61 64 58 59 54 49 41 33 29 30 24 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 31 34 36 44 59 83 81 103 83 77 53 57 50 LAND (KM) 1141 1186 1239 1273 1313 1372 1467 1588 1675 1788 1926 2074 2132 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.5 117.5 118.4 119.2 121.2 123.1 124.9 126.5 128.4 130.6 132.6 134.5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 554 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 54 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 29. 30. 28. 27. 24. 22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 11. 16. 21. 28. 34. 35. 34. 31. 28. 26. 24. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) SIX 8/09/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.79 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.72 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.51 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.6 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 11.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.74 Scaled RI index= 5.30 Prob of RI= 72.4% is 6.0 times the sample mean(12.0%)