* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 50 54 58 61 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 50 54 58 61 62 63 62 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 12 11 12 11 5 4 3 3 5 7 13 SHEAR DIR 264 265 259 257 243 269 259 261 185 185 135 99 141 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 149 151 152 154 154 154 151 146 142 141 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 13 13 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 12 500-300 MB RH 37 36 40 41 36 42 42 43 36 34 31 28 24 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 4 5 5 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 0 3 7 -3 -19 -29 -37 -75 -78 -81 -81 -87 -82 LAND (KM) 1204 1124 1047 988 941 936 960 964 981 1014 996 1011 876 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.6 22.7 23.3 23.8 25.0 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.0 28.6 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.9 56.8 57.8 58.8 60.2 61.0 62.1 63.4 64.9 66.2 67.8 69.6 HEAT CONTENT 47 43 39 37 32 36 34 29 25 20 15 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 577 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -15 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 34. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 67.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.33 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 23.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.07 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 12.1% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)