* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/10/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 48 55 62 67 74 77 77 73 68 63 59 56 V (KT) LAND 40 48 55 62 67 74 77 77 73 68 63 59 56 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 4 2 5 2 6 2 5 5 9 6 10 SHEAR DIR 320 29 52 95 116 107 94 95 105 115 137 170 181 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 26.9 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 149 146 136 127 124 121 117 113 110 106 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 59 60 62 58 59 59 51 48 35 34 31 33 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 850 MB VORT 28 30 33 51 66 75 78 91 78 79 62 70 54 LAND (KM) 1096 1162 1238 1299 1346 1405 1501 1599 1665 1751 1863 1984 2098 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.3 120.3 122.0 123.7 125.3 126.8 128.4 130.1 131.8 133.4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 618 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 73 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 26. 30. 31. 30. 26. 22. 18. 14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 15. 22. 27. 34. 37. 37. 33. 28. 23. 19. 16. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/10/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.46 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.74 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.82 Scaled RI index= 5.51 Prob of RI= 80.2% is 6.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)