* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 43 48 52 57 59 61 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 43 48 52 57 59 61 60 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 11 12 12 6 5 9 8 8 11 17 15 SHEAR DIR 270 254 249 247 260 216 206 185 201 159 160 151 156 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 151 152 154 155 152 148 145 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 37 42 42 37 38 43 41 43 36 38 31 32 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) 5 3 8 6 5 3 2 0 -2 0 0 3 0 850 MB VORT 9 15 10 -8 -21 -14 -49 -47 -81 -74 -106 -84 -97 LAND (KM) 1033 957 892 846 819 791 841 853 911 963 849 744 706 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.8 24.3 25.2 26.1 26.8 27.6 28.3 29.1 29.6 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 57.9 58.9 60.0 61.1 63.4 65.5 66.7 67.5 68.7 70.5 71.5 71.7 HEAT CONTENT 38 37 34 38 41 34 30 30 17 14 12 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 583 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 5 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 13. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 32. 34. 36. 35. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.31 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.20 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 31.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.21 Scaled RI index= 3.61 Prob of RI= 7.1% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)