* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/10/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 54 58 63 66 65 62 59 55 51 47 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 54 58 63 66 65 62 59 55 51 47 SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 4 3 2 4 0 1 4 4 10 12 15 SHEAR DIR 318 325 24 99 135 339 262 78 185 188 176 177 175 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.0 25.4 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 147 143 133 126 120 117 117 116 117 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 500-300 MB RH 58 58 59 56 60 59 58 47 40 41 38 35 36 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 -1 0 3 850 MB VORT 27 22 27 36 34 22 28 23 33 19 27 25 78 LAND (KM) 1116 1146 1182 1207 1227 1282 1353 1417 1495 1581 1688 1767 1817 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.0 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.5 118.2 119.0 119.7 121.2 122.5 123.6 124.9 126.2 127.7 128.6 129.3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 612 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 23. 24. 22. 19. 15. 11. 7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 14. 18. 23. 26. 25. 22. 19. 15. 11. 7. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/10/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.94 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.7 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.88 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.39 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.8 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.78 Prob of RI= 51.6% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)