* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 53 59 64 67 67 67 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 53 59 64 67 67 67 66 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 13 14 11 6 5 6 5 11 13 12 7 SHEAR DIR 262 243 245 260 275 226 199 198 155 159 155 171 167 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 149 151 155 157 154 152 149 145 145 146 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 12 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 40 42 38 38 43 47 45 41 39 32 30 29 34 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 6 9 7 5 3 1 0 -2 0 3 2 0 850 MB VORT 21 19 6 -3 3 -10 -31 -42 -55 -71 -100 -84 -89 LAND (KM) 991 913 845 793 756 736 823 823 830 883 874 742 656 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.8 25.9 26.5 26.9 27.6 28.8 29.5 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.3 59.3 60.4 61.4 63.8 65.5 66.7 67.7 68.9 70.5 71.7 72.6 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 35 42 43 38 33 33 32 20 14 16 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 496 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 38. 38. 38. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 29. 34. 37. 37. 37. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.78 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 66.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.30 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.28 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.25 Scaled RI index= 3.84 Prob of RI= 9.8% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)