* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/10/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 68 73 76 78 78 74 69 63 59 54 49 V (KT) LAND 55 63 68 73 76 78 78 74 69 63 59 54 49 SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 5 9 17 15 SHEAR DIR 351 46 117 148 128 86 271 86 120 154 151 161 188 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.4 25.5 24.9 24.7 24.7 25.0 24.9 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 143 139 130 121 115 113 113 116 115 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 500-300 MB RH 56 51 52 57 56 50 44 38 35 35 39 35 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 3 2 850 MB VORT 19 27 37 43 27 12 19 29 22 20 57 87 90 LAND (KM) 1190 1221 1241 1258 1278 1320 1375 1436 1496 1572 1657 1736 1814 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.5 18.5 18.2 18.2 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.8 119.5 120.1 120.7 121.8 123.1 124.4 125.6 126.6 127.4 128.4 129.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 19. 23. 22. 20. 15. 10. 5. 0. -5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 19. 14. 8. 4. -1. -6. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/10/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.75 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 90.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.66 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.92 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.9 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.52 Scaled RI index= 4.48 Prob of RI= 37.4% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.0%)