* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * IRENE 08/10/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 55 59 62 63 63 63 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 55 59 62 63 63 63 63 SHEAR (KTS) 9 13 15 13 8 7 7 8 9 11 12 8 8 SHEAR DIR 265 242 259 267 266 247 165 187 158 178 173 180 177 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 151 152 157 155 154 151 149 148 148 152 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 12 13 500-300 MB RH 38 36 36 38 42 38 40 34 33 30 29 26 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 8 10 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 850 MB VORT 10 2 -2 7 -1 -35 -32 -66 -63 -98 -83 -86 -86 LAND (KM) 927 847 782 737 710 738 780 820 856 912 757 544 305 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.8 24.2 25.1 26.3 27.0 27.4 28.0 29.1 30.6 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.2 60.4 61.7 62.9 65.2 67.3 68.7 69.4 70.5 72.1 73.5 74.9 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 43 41 34 47 40 31 23 24 18 17 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 497 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 9 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34. 35. 35. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 33. 33. 33. 33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRENE 8/10/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.77 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.27 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.66 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 22.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.51 Scaled RI index= 4.46 Prob of RI= 18.5% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)