* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * FERNANDA 08/10/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 70 74 76 76 73 69 63 58 55 51 48 V (KT) LAND 60 66 70 74 76 76 73 69 63 58 55 51 48 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 4 4 3 5 4 5 4 4 10 13 SHEAR DIR 7 64 96 84 46 60 52 147 124 180 231 163 169 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.1 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 141 138 127 121 118 117 116 115 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 52 52 60 59 54 56 48 45 41 36 32 31 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 850 MB VORT 28 34 37 28 18 13 8 26 28 35 31 83 73 LAND (KM) 1220 1243 1266 1293 1322 1368 1407 1470 1544 1626 1696 1793 1919 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.3 119.9 120.6 121.2 122.5 123.4 124.4 125.7 126.9 127.9 129.1 130.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 555 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 13. 9. 4. 0. -4. -8. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 10. 14. 16. 16. 13. 9. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) FERNANDA 8/10/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.29 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 83.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.80 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.60 Scaled RI index= 4.63 Prob of RI= 44.4% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.0%)