* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/10/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 33 38 43 47 49 52 54 55 54 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 33 38 43 47 49 52 54 55 54 SHEAR (KTS) 16 19 18 15 18 21 19 16 13 8 7 7 7 SHEAR DIR 22 35 43 35 43 39 40 41 41 53 26 60 90 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 151 151 152 153 152 152 150 142 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 6 500-300 MB RH 62 61 64 64 61 65 60 65 64 60 56 54 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) -5 -5 -5 -4 1 -3 2 0 3 0 0 3 1 850 MB VORT -34 -30 -21 -23 -19 -12 0 5 16 22 28 51 68 LAND (KM) 837 877 922 977 1043 1181 1235 1281 1301 1341 1384 1396 1437 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.5 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.2 109.2 110.3 111.4 113.4 115.1 116.4 117.5 118.6 119.9 121.3 123.0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 580 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 47 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 35. 34. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/10/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.3 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.52 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 132.0 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.97 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.58 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.8 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.40 Scaled RI index= 3.72 Prob of RI= 22.4% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.0%)